An introduction to how and why human populations grow or shrink over time using key demographic indicators.
Imagine a stadium that fills up with 200 new people every single minute—that is the speed of our global population growth. But why is the world's 'stadium' filling up so much faster today than it did 200 years ago?
To understand how a population changes, geographers look at two main 'valves' in the human bathtub: people being born and people dying. We measure these using the Crude Birth Rate (CBR) and the Crude Death Rate (CDR). These aren't just total numbers; they are calculated as the number of births or deaths for every 1,000 people in a population per year. By using a 'per 1,000' scale, we can fairly compare a small country like Iceland to a giant like India. If a country has a CBR of 20, it means for every 1,000 residents, 20 babies were born that year. If the 'water' coming in (births) is faster than the 'water' draining out (deaths), the population grows.
Quick Check
If Country A has 500,000 people and Country B has 2 million people, why do geographers use a rate 'per 1,000' instead of just counting total births?
Answer
Using a rate per 1,000 allows geographers to compare countries of different sizes accurately.
Let's calculate the NIR for a fictional town called Demographia. 1. Identify the CBR: Demographia has a birth rate of per 1,000. 2. Identify the CDR: It has a death rate of per 1,000. 3. Subtract the CDR from the CBR: . 4. The Natural Increase Rate is per 1,000.
Quick Check
If a country has a CBR of 12 and a CDR of 12, what is its Natural Increase Rate?
Answer
The NIR is 0, meaning the population is stable (Zero Population Growth).
For most of human history, population grew very slowly because the 'drain' (death rate) was almost as wide as the 'faucet' (birth rate). This changed with three major revolutions. First, Medical Advances like vaccines and antibiotics stopped millions of premature deaths. Second, Sanitation Improvements—specifically clean running water and sewers—prevented the spread of diseases like cholera. Third, the Green Revolution introduced high-yield crops and better farming technology, ensuring more people had enough to eat. These changes didn't necessarily make people have more babies; instead, they drastically slowed down the rate at which people were dying, causing the population to skyrocket.
Consider a city before and after modern plumbing: 1. Before: Contaminated water leads to a high CDR of per 1,000. With a CBR of , the NIR is only . 2. After: Clean water is introduced. The CBR stays at , but the CDR drops to . 3. Result: The new NIR is . The population is now growing times faster than before, simply because fewer people are dying.
A country has a total population of . In one year, it records births and deaths. 1. Find the CBR: . 2. Find the CDR: . 3. Calculate the NIR: . 4. Calculate the annual growth percentage: . 5. Total new people added: people.
What does a Crude Birth Rate of 18 mean?
If a country has a CBR of 30 and a CDR of 10, what is its annual growth percentage?
The primary reason for the global 'population explosion' was a massive increase in the number of babies being born per family.
Review Tomorrow
In 24 hours, try to explain to a friend why 'clean water' is actually a demographic tool that changes the size of a country.
Practice Activity
Search online for the 'CBR and CDR of Japan' and 'CBR and CDR of Niger.' Calculate the NIR for both and compare which one is growing faster.