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A look at the five stages of population change as countries develop economically and socially.
Why do some countries have classrooms overflowing with children, while others have more retirement homes than schools? The answer isn't random—it's a predictable pattern of human history.
Every country begins in Stage 1 (High Stationary), where both birth rates () and death rates () are very high. Because , the total population stays low and stable. However, as a country starts to develop—improving food supply and basic sanitation—it enters Stage 2 (Early Expanding). In this stage, the death rate plummets due to medical advances, but the birth rate remains high because large families are still culturally or economically preferred. This creates a massive gap called Natural Increase, where the population explodes.
Quick Check
In Stage 2, does the population grow because people are having more babies than before?
Answer
No, the population grows because people are living longer (death rates fall), while the birth rate stays high.
As a society moves into Stage 3 (Late Expanding), social changes take hold. Urbanization (moving to cities) means children are no longer needed to work on farms; instead, they become an economic cost. With better education and access to healthcare, the birth rate begins to fall. Eventually, the country reaches Stage 4 (Low Stationary). Here, both and are low, and the population stabilizes again, but at a much higher total number than in Stage 1. Most developed nations, like the USA or UK, are in this stage.
Consider the transition from a rural farm to a city apartment: 1. On a farm, 6 children provide labor (Stage 2). 2. In a city, 6 children require 6 sets of school fees and a massive apartment (Stage 3). 3. Families choose to have 1 or 2 children to maintain their standard of living, leading to the low rates seen in Stage 4.
Quick Check
What is the primary reason birth rates begin to fall in Stage 3?
Answer
Social and economic changes, such as urbanization and better education for women, make large families less necessary or affordable.
Some countries have entered a new phase: Stage 5 (Declining). In this stage, the birth rate falls below the death rate (). This leads to a Natural Decrease. The population begins to shrink and age, meaning there are more elderly people than young workers. This creates a high Dependency Ratio, where a smaller workforce must support a larger retired population. Countries like Japan and Germany are currently navigating the challenges of Stage 5.
In a Stage 5 country, the population pyramid flips. 1. If and , the is . 2. A negative means the country must rely on immigration or technology (like robots) to maintain its economy because there aren't enough young people to fill jobs.
Which stage of the DTM is characterized by the highest rate of population growth?
What does a 'negative' Natural Increase indicate about a country?
Urbanization is a major factor that causes birth rates to decline in Stage 3.
Review Tomorrow
In 24 hours, try to sketch the DTM graph from memory. Can you label where the 'Population Explosion' happens and why?
Practice Activity
Look up the current Birth Rate and Death Rate for a country of your choice. Subtract them to find the Natural Increase and guess which DTM stage they are in!