Climate Change and Resource Scarcity

In contemporary geopolitics, climate change is rarely the sole cause of war; instead, it acts as a threat multiplier. This means it intensifies existing social, economic, and political tensions. When environmental degradation—such as desertification or sea-level rise—destroys livelihoods, it forces climate migration. Large-scale movement of people into already stressed urban areas can lead to competition for jobs and resources, eventually sparking civil unrest. For example, researchers often cite the record-breaking drought in Syria from 2006–2011 as a catalyst that pushed rural farmers into cities, destabilizing the region before the 2011 uprising. The core issue is not just the lack of rain, but the government's inability to manage the resulting economic shock.

To combat these risks, the international community created the Paris Agreement (2015). Unlike previous treaties, it uses a 'bottom-up' approach. Each nation sets its own Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)—targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The goal is to limit global warming to well below $2^{\circ}C$, preferably $1.5^{\circ}C$, compared to pre-industrial levels. However, the agreement lacks a formal enforcement mechanism. While it creates a framework for transparency, the actual implementation depends on national domestic policy. Critics argue that without 'teeth' or sanctions, the agreement relies too heavily on 'naming and shaming' countries that fail to meet their targets.

As resources dwindle, certain geographic areas become flashpoints—regions where conflict is highly likely. Hydropolitics (the politics of water) is a major concern in the Nile River Basin. Ethiopia’s construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has created a 'zero-sum' dilemma. Ethiopia needs the dam for electricity ($6,000$ MW capacity), but Egypt fears it will reduce its water share, which accounts for $90\%$ of its freshwater. Similarly, the melting Arctic ice is opening new shipping lanes and access to $13\%$ of the world's undiscovered oil. This has led to a 'scramble for the Arctic' among the US, Russia, and China, turning a previously inaccessible wilderness into a zone of military posturing.